New immigration rules are set to exacerbate recruitment issues within the sector, with less foreign workers but more people needing care
UK immigration policy after leaving the European Union is set to hit health and social care system in Scotland.
A Scottish Government commissioned report into migration after Brexit identifies social care as an industry that will be hit particularly hard.
The Expert Advisory Group – which is made up of academics – deems that changes set out in the UK government’s Immigration White Paper are projected to reduce net migration to Scotland by between 30-50% over the coming two decades.
A £30,000 annual threshold set as part of the new system would mean that sectors such as social care will struggle to recruit EU workers, with many of the roles required by organisations failing to pay the minimum rate required.
The report asserts: “One example of a severely affected sector is social care, where less than 10% of those in caring personal service occupations in Scotland earn above £25,000, and none earn £30,000.
“The budgetary pressures faced by local authorities, the main purchaser of social care services, mean that there is little prospect of raising salaries in social care to a level that would attract greater numbers of UK workers.
“Therefore, the proposed changes will exacerbate existing labour shortages in many areas. The brunt of these shortages is likely to be borne by friends and family who will have to assume responsibility for care, and especially female family members.”
The study estimates that there will be an increase in need for social care, with the number of Scots aged 80 or over set to increase by 68% between 2016 and 2036.
At present, over 9% of the workforce in this sector was born outside the UK, with 38.5% of these workers coming from the EU.
The report warns that changes could also hit those in rural communities harder than in urban areas.
It said: “The proposals to end free movement and restrict immigration to Tier 2 and temporary routes would seriously disrupt current patterns of mobility and settlement across Scotland.
“As we saw, there are very few jobs available in rural and remote areas that would meet the £30,000 salary threshold, and many jobs would not meet a lower £25,000 threshold.”
Calls for an independent evaluation of the effect Brexit will have on health and social care have received backing from more than 100 organisations – with the Assess and Address campaign launching at Westminster last month.
Brendan O’Hara MP introduced a private member’s bill calling for an independent review of Brexit’s impact on health and social care at the House of Commons in November.
This was in response to concerns raised by the third sector, led by the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO), the Health and Social Care Alliance Scotland and Camphill Scotland.
