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Taking a punt

This opinion piece is over 2 years old
 

I’m very aware that the only safe way with predictions is to make them after the event.

But sometimes, just sometimes, what’s barrelling down the line is so grossly obvious that you can risk taking a punt.

So here’s a couple of predictions: One, wee Stevie G will turn his back on the delights of away fixtures in Dingwall to lead some EPL mid-tablers down the slippery slope (did you see what I did there) to the Championship.

And two: Cop26 will prove to be a massive disappointment to the many millions who had illusions in it.

Half of that first prediction actually came true (how exciting!) while I was writing this as Gerrard was unveiled as the manager at Villa Park. We’ve got at least half a season before we know the outcome of the second part.

On the second prediction, bear in mind that this is being written before the end of Cop, and is published after it officially finishes. But even from this distance, it is blindingly obvious what’s going to happen as a result of the official, conference hall Cop: virtually nothing substantial that will in any way stave off the destruction of our species in a boiling, suffocating hell.

You could tell the way it was going mid-way into its second week when BoJo didn’t so much as try to massage expectations as subject them to an old fashioned, good natured, trousers-down Bullingdon-style rogering.

We need to be realistic about the Glasgow round of Cop, he said, while lumberingly booting the ball to Cairo, where the next Cop will be held. And good luck protesting there.

But it’s on the subject of protest where there might be found a glimmer of light.

The best, most important thing about this round of Cop was not what was happening in the Scottish Events Campus, and certainly not those really annoying first minister/Irn Bru/liberal celeb insta-snaps.

It was happening outside – on the streets, in the righteous anger of a whole generation who are being robbed of a future in the most literal, horrible sense, in the grassroots networks which are growing worldwide and which must crystalise to form a movement which must not just demand but make the fundamental, deep, systemic change which is necessary if we are to survive.

At this stage this is not a prediction, more of a hope. But through the actions of civil society exerting pressure across all fronts, there is something hugely substantial and significant to build on.

And if it is just a wish, then at least this time it won’t be the hope that kills us.

Graham Martin is editor of TFN.