A doomsday warning of a regression to Victorian era social services is a real possiblity

Scotland’s social services are in danger of falling back to levels last seen in the Victorian era within the next decade.

The Institute for Research and Innovation in Social Services (IRISS) issued the doomsday warning after carrying out six months of research exploring what drives change to social services.

The year-long Imagining the Future project is examining four possible future scenarios for social services – the worst of which will see services regress to a time before the introduction of the welfare state.

As part of IRISS’ Yesterday is Another World scenario it has envisaged a world in which half the population is over 50, a third is aged over 65 and Scotland's public services have reached crisis point as need outstrips supply.

Attempts to transform the culture of social services will have failed due to short-termism of politicians chasing votes as will plans to share care between health and social services in the public, private and third sectors.

Due to an unwillingness to raise taxes fewer staff are left with bigger workloads and the majority, in their fifties, are at breaking point.

On the flipside, the most positive scenario, New Normal, describes a future where there is no stigma for people accessing services as everyone uses them to some degree. Flexible personal budgets have enabled people to move away from traditional services and many people mix and match their care with local authority and private services.

On publication of the project, which includes a new website exploring the scenarios further, Professor Alison Petch, director of IRISS, was quick to state none of the scenarios are predictions by IRISS but instead are presentations made to kickstart discussion among community groups, social work teams, health and social services teams and policy makers.

These scenarios are provocations not predictions – designed to stimulate debate and challenge our assumptions

“These scenarios are provocations not predictions,” she said. “Imagining the Future is a powerful tool to help those involved in social services think and reflect on how they are planning for the coming decade.

“The scenarios have been designed to stimulate debate and challenge our assumptions.”

IRISS’ Post Welfare World scenario sees social services becoming the responsibility of family and wider community, and state provision is minimal. Welfare and care benefits no longer exist, and instead, every person is paid a Citizens Income, which is expected to be topped up by local paid employment.

Its Fully Integrated World scenario depicts a world driven by elite expert health systems where managers decision making is central to its seamless operations. While many benefit, many more find this world hard to navigate, faceless and lacking humanity.

Mary Duffy, who oversaw the year-long project, added: “No one can predict what the future will hold, but Imagining the Future scenarios have been based on six months research exploring what we know is driving change in social services, and on professional and community hopes for the future.”

Groups are urged to use the website to reappraise their plans for the future. An Imagining the Future game is available online to guide and prompt groups to work with the scenarios.